Legalizing marijuana in Arizona gains support in new poll

• A majority of Arizona's likely voters support legalizing marijuana use
• Legalization is polling stronger than it did in 2016.
• Older voters and Republicans remain opposed to such a measure.

A new poll shows most Arizona voters support legalizing "adult use" of marijuana, an encouraging sign for advocates who hope a ballot measure that uses similar language will pass next year.

The poll from OH Predictive Insights of likely 2020 voters showed 52 percent in favor of marijuana legalization and 41 percent opposed. Just 7 percent were undecided.

The poll asked specifically, "Do you believe that marijuana should be legalized for adult use in the state of Arizona?" — and avoided the words "possession" and "consumption."

Previous polls by the same firm ahead of the 2016 election never showed such strong public support, though other polls at the time did. A legalization effort that year failed with about 48.7 percent of voters in favor and 51.3 percent opposed.

“If supporters of adult use marijuana go back to the ballot in 2020, they face an open-minded electorate and better prospects for success than in 2016,” said Mike Noble, managing partner of Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights.

The strongest pockets of opposition in the poll of 600 likely voters came from older voters, Republicans and Hispanic voters.

The poll was conducted Feb. 12-13 with 47 percent of respondents on cell phones and 53 percent on landlines. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.

The same poll found 52 percent of likely voters approve or strongly approve of President Donald Trump and 47 percent disapprove or strongly disapprove of the president.

Young voters, those ages 18-54, support adult-use legalization by a margin of 57 to 35 percent, according to the poll, while supporters only hold a 1-point margin among those ages 55 and older. Voters ages 65 and older oppose such a measure 48 to 43 percent.

Wording proves important

The adjustment in language from legalizing possession and consumption of marijuana to "adult-use" of marijuana might get as much credit for the swing in poll results as actual changes in public sentiment towards marijuana, said Noah Rudnick, a senior data analyst at OH Predictive Insights.

Proponents of legalization have been using the phrase "adult-use" to portray more responsible consumption of marijuana.

"That's what we think will be on the ballot instead, and so we were testing to see if this phrasing is more in support," Rudnick said. "If the election were today, with 'adult use,' it's almost a guarantee this would pass."

But Rudnick said the phrase "adult use" shouldn't be given all the credit for the change. He said in a series of two polls in 2016, Arizonans increasingly supported legalizing marijuana.

At the time of those 2016 polls, Arizonans were preparing to vote on Proposition 205, which would have legalized marijuana use beyond the medical-marijuana program voters approved in 2010.

"There was growth there even as negative ads were running (in 2016 to oppose the ballot measure)," Rudnick said.

In 2016, the group opposed to the legalization effort, Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy, spent more than $6 million against Prop. 205.

"If I were to make a bet, this would grow as time goes on," Rudnick said of the trend toward legalization.

Women show increasing support

It also was noteworthy, he said, that for the first time a majority of women polled supported such a measure. Women agreed with legalization by a 47 to 44 percent margin in the poll.

Proponents of legalizing adult use, including the founder of the Marijuana Industry Trade Association in Arizona, say the results are not surprising.

"MITA understands that the trend is toward adult use, adult choice, and we expect the initiative in 2020 to pass at 55 to 57 percentile rates," MITA founder Demitri Downing said.

Like the pollsters, Downing said the phrasing used in such an initiative is important not only to gain public support, but to encourage responsible use of marijuana by eliminating the idea that the substance should be used for recreation.

"When (voters) see proper messaging, freedom and choice triumph over government dogma and restrictions," Downing said. "They will be all over it."

Reach reporter Ryan Randazzo at ryan.randazzo@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-4331. Follow him on Twitter @UtilityReporter.

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